AI playcalling

[markprior22]

Was watching a game last night that ended in this fashion. Team down 19-10 and driving. Gets to the 20 with about 3:30 remaining in the game. 4th down comes around but, instead of kicking a FG, they run right into the middle of the line and turn the ball over on downs. They needed 2 scores and a FG would have been the correct call here. Have the defense hold and try for a big play, PI, etc depending on how much time is left. I know the AI can't always be perfect but I felt like this kind of ruined this particular game.

[slybelle1]

Was watching a game last night that ended in this fashion. Team down 19-10 and driving. Gets to the 20 with about 3:30 remaining in the game. 4th down comes around but, instead of kicking a FG, they run right into the middle of the line and turn the ball over on downs. They needed 2 scores and a FG would have been the correct call here. Have the defense hold and try for a big play, PI, etc depending on how much time is left. I know the AI can't always be perfect but I felt like this kind of ruined this particular game.

Not sure I agree that kicking the FG is always the correct call in that situation, I don't believe in real life that all coaches would kick the FG in that situation 100% of the time. Sometimes when teams are struggling, they worry they won't get as close again so they decide to go for the TD instead. You didn't mention how much distance they needed for the first down as running certainly might be an option depending on how far they needed to go and how good their running game is. Now if it was 4th and 10 and they ran it, certainly that play call might be suspect.

[brooks_piggott]

A lot of the AI doesn't kick in with this much time remaining. It defaults to the coach profiles and playbooks. But also the timing matters... what if there was 2:45 on the clock, or 3:15, or 3:29 or 3:31 or 3:32? At a certain point the AI does weigh decisions to be more realistic, but otherwise I let it ride and sometimes the coaches make decisions that don't work out.

I would also argue in this case the coach probably made the right call. I'd much rather take my shot from the 20 to get my touchdown and then play for a stop. Either way you're only getting the ball back with a minute or so left. And driving half the field for a FG in a minute seems much easier than driving the full field. So given that I don't think that this sequence is all that bad or ruins the game in any way.

[markprior22]

Ok we'll roll with that. Glad you guys aren't running my team. You've got to have time to set up for a FG. After the other team gets the ball back, you will probably have limited time on the clock. A touchdown certainly isn't a given but can happen in one play (or a penalty). It wasn't 4th and 1...it was 5 yds or so. You need 2 scores...you take the first one however you can get it (which would be a relatively easy FG in this case) and hope you can catch lightening in a bottle.
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[brooks_piggott]

Yea, you may be right. Bottom line is it's still a coin flip scenario (whether it's 50/50 and we're both equally likely to win, or 80/20 you're right) and in this case based on the time, the scenario, your game plan, and your coach, the coach went for it, and I'm okay with that.

For everyone reading these: I do investigate all of these reports, and I do make tweaks to the percentages. But at a certain point people have to realize this is a game, a computer sim, with hundreds of decision points built into it, and not ever decision that comes out is going to be what you want. I want hiring coaches to mean something. I want personalities to mean something. I want there to always be a certain percent change the coach screws up, or the player makes a wrong decision. I designed it that way. So feel free to report scenarios where I may need to tweak things to make them more realistic, but set your expectations accordingly.

[slybelle1]

Ok we'll roll with that. Glad you guys aren't running my team. You've got to have time to set up for a FG. After the other team gets the ball back, you will probably have limited time on the clock. A touchdown certainly isn't a given but can happen in one play (or a penalty). It wasn't 4th and 1...it was 5 yds or so. You need 2 scores...you take the first one however you can get it (which would be a relatively easy FG in this case) and hope you can catch lightening in a bottle.
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Likewise, glad your not running my team. Not a black and white scenario and I could absolutely see this being a valid way to approach this situation. Not saying every time but absolutely real life teams have done this exact thing.